business
impactful
informative

OBR downgrades growth forecasts, threatening Labour's economic plans

Nov 24, 2025, 10:43 AM40
(Update: Nov 26, 2025, 7:37 PM)
mountain in Bosnia and Herzegovina
constitutional monarchy in Western Europe (1707–1800)

OBR downgrades growth forecasts, threatening Labour's economic plans

  • The OBR is expected to announce downgrades to economic growth forecasts during Chancellor Reeves' Budget presentation.
  • Concerns have been raised by business leaders about the UK's economic trajectory and potential stagnation.
  • The Labour government's reliance on growth-centric policies faces significant challenges as robust actions are now required to improve public finances.
Share opinion
Tip: Add insight, not just a reaction
4

Story

In the United Kingdom, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is set to announce a significant downgrade of its economic growth forecasts for the remainder of the parliamentary term when Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her Budget. Scheduled for Wednesday, this Budget comes at a critical time, as the Labour government has positioned economic growth as a core priority in its agenda. The anticipated downgrade is expected to include revisions for 2026 and subsequent years, highlighting an already fragile economic situation that poses challenges for the government's fiscal strategies. The revised forecasts come amidst a backdrop of concerns voiced by business leaders regarding the stagnation in economic momentum. Rain Newton-Smith, head of the CBI, warned about the risk of the UK entering a stop-start economic cycle unless decisive actions are taken. This sentiment mirrors the outlook shared by the business secretary, Peter Kyle, who expressed frustration over the speculation surrounding the forthcoming Budget and its implications for overall confidence in the government's handling of the economy. Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces immense pressure to undertake necessary tax hikes to bridge a projected £20 billion gap in public finances. Among the proposed measures is the introduction of a mansion tax targeting high-value properties, alongside an extension of tax threshold freezes. These potential actions indicate a shift towards raising revenue in light of the predicted shortfall, which is likely to add to the political challenges facing the Labour government. The OBR's upcoming first release of these financial projections was described as 'classic spin,' with insiders noting that the government likely aims to underplay the negative outlook to manage public expectations. However, economic experts caution that persistent issues, such as the constraints on productivity growth and headwinds from the global economy, may contribute to a prolonged 'growth crisis' for the UK, necessitating reforms that could fundamentally alter the current economic landscape. The urgency for effective government action stands evident, with analysts suggesting that the combination of tax hikes and reform could either mitigate or exacerbate the present fiscal challenges.

2026 All rights reserved