In an interview with Fortune earlier this year, James Liang, cofounder of Trip.com, expressed concerns about the implications of demographic decline on innovation. He emphasized that a growing population is essential for fostering innovation, stating that fewer people would lead to diminished capacity for research and development. Liang's views are rooted in his long-standing academic focus on population dynamics and demographic changes, particularly in East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are experiencing significant declines in fertility rates. He criticized China's previous One Child Policy, which he believes has contributed to the current demographic challenges.
Liang pointed out that last year, two-thirds of the global population resided in countries with fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. He highlighted that South Korea's fertility rate has seen a slight increase, but it remains critically low, necessitating substantial economic investment to achieve stability. He advocates for policies that support family growth, such as cash transfers, subsidized daycare, and flexible work arrangements, which could help alleviate the financial burdens on young families.
Moreover, Liang discussed the role of artificial intelligence in this demographic context. While he sees potential for AI to provide young people with more time and financial resources to raise families, he also expressed concerns that AI could displace entry-level jobs, making it harder for young individuals to feel secure enough to start families. He believes that addressing the gender imbalance in household responsibilities is crucial for encouraging women to have children, as many delay parenthood due to the unequal distribution of domestic work.
In summary, Liang's philosophy, which he terms 'innovationism,' underscores the importance of population growth for sustaining innovation and economic development. He argues that without proactive measures to support family growth and address demographic challenges, societies may face significant hurdles in maintaining their innovative capacities and overall economic health.
