In the United States, Alcoa's shares experienced a significant decline on June 10, 2026, following a stark warning from CFO Molly Beerman regarding the company's alumina segment. Beerman addressed investors at the Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference, stating that the alumina segment is currently under immense pressure and will likely be unprofitable. This situation arises from a combination of soaring energy costs, supply disruptions in the Gulf region, and issues with liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in Western Australia due to Cyclone Narelle. Alcoa's alumina refineries, primarily located in Western Australia, Brazil, and Spain, are heavily reliant on fuel and electricity. Although these refineries are not situated in the Gulf region, they supply alumina to aluminum smelters located there, making them vulnerable to ongoing disruptions in shipping through the Hormuz Strait and energy shocks affecting the Gulf. Beerman's comments led to a 9.5% drop in Alcoa's stock price, marking the largest single-day decline in over a year. Despite the negative outlook for the alumina segment, Wall Street analysts remain largely optimistic about Alcoa's overall performance. Analysts from major financial institutions, including Mercuria, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan, believe that the energy crisis in the Gulf will lead to a supply shock in the aluminum market, pushing prices back to levels not seen since 2022. Mercuria's commodities analyst Nick Snowdon described the current situation as potentially the largest supply shock in the aluminum market since 2000, indicating that the industry is facing unprecedented challenges. As Alcoa anticipates production of 9.7 to 9.9 million metric tons of alumina and shipments of 11.8 to 12.0 million metric tons in 2026, the company is bracing for the impact of the energy crisis on its second-quarter earnings. The combination of external factors, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters, has created a precarious environment for Alcoa and the broader aluminum market, raising concerns about future profitability and stability in the industry.