
Goldman Sachs warns: tariffs won't lower prices for Americans
Goldman Sachs warns: tariffs won't lower prices for Americans
- The Supreme Court ruled against tariffs imposed by President Trump under the IEEPA, impacting U.S. import duties.
- Goldman Sachs indicates that high prices for consumers will likely persist despite the removal of certain tariffs.
- Economic analyses highlight ongoing concerns about the overall inflation outlook and consumer spending due to lingering tariffs.
Story
The Supreme Court issued a ruling invalidating several of President Donald Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). On Friday, in a decisive 6-3 ruling, the Court deemed the tariffs illegal, affecting a significant portion of U.S. import duties. Following this decision, Goldman Sachs provided insights indicating that despite the elimination of some tariffs, U.S. consumers should not expect immediate price reductions at retail outlets. They emphasized that companies tend to adjust prices slowly and are unlikely to lower them in response to tariff reductions as quickly as they raised prices when tariffs were introduced. The inflation impacts of tariffs have been substantial. Goldman Sachs calculated that these tariffs contributed to nearly a 0.7% increase in core Personal Consumption Expenditures, which the Federal Reserve monitors closely as an inflation indicator, through the end of January 2026. Even with the removal of some tariffs, they expect only a slight additional inflation increase of 0.1% by the end of 2026, indicating a gradual persistence of high prices for consumers. As the effective tariff rate only declines from slightly above 10% to around 9%, their projections for broader inflation remain largely unchanged. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed skepticism that households would benefit from refunds on the $180 billion collected in tariffs. He stated that it is highly unlikely the American public will see any of that money returned, complicating how importers—and, by extension, consumers—might recover costs incurred from prior tariff payments. The Supreme Court ruling did resonate with some state officials, like California Governor Gavin Newsom, who criticized the previous tariffs, calling them an illegal trade policy. Nonetheless, the immediate future for consumers still remains uncertain with lingering tariffs like those under Section 232 and Section 301 still in effect. Legal challenges could arise regarding the refunding process for tariffs already collected. Experts suggest that it may take months for companies to determine eligibility for refunds, given the involvement of U.S. Customs and Border Protection and additional court processes. Many voices inside and outside the Trump administration appear doubtful about any significant recovery of tariff revenues for American consumers. As a result, the end of these tariffs does not necessarily mean relief from high prices for everyday Americans, leading to a growing concern about continued living conditions against economic pressures.