In recent months, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman, have welcomed a breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending a war that they never desired. This shift in attitude is largely a response to Israeli aggression, which has ironically pushed some Gulf nations closer to Tehran. Researchers indicate that the ongoing conflict has compelled these states to pursue a more pragmatic relationship with Iran, focusing on enhanced dialogue to deter further conflict. Despite this, the Gulf states' approach is driven more by a desire for peace than by newfound trust in Iran.
Historically, Gulf states have been skeptical of Iran, particularly following the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that aimed to regulate Tehran's nuclear program. However, the immediate threats posed by Iran's use of drones and proxies to destabilize the region have taken precedence over nuclear concerns. As a result, Gulf states are advocating for a more comprehensive agreement with Iran that addresses these security issues. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent tour of the Gulf was intended to reassure these nations that the agreement with Iran would not empower Tehran at their expense.
Qatar has taken on a co-mediator role, representing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) during negotiations, emphasizing the importance of including Gulf states in any new agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The dynamics of the region have changed significantly, with Gulf states demonstrating patience and pragmatism in their dealings with Iran, despite being targets of Iranian aggression. The ongoing conflict has led to a re-evaluation of foreign policy decisions among these nations, as they seek to manage their relationship with Iran independently of U.S. influence.
The evolving situation has also highlighted the differing interests among Gulf states, Turkey, and Pakistan regarding Iran. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE are more inclined towards accommodation, Turkey is focused on containing Iranian influence in neighboring countries. This divergence complicates the potential for a unified approach to Iran, but it also indicates a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Tehran on their own terms. As the region navigates these complex relationships, the U.S. may find itself in a position of being a guarantor of last resort rather than a primary manager of Middle Eastern affairs.
