Ethiopia's battle to regain access to the sea
2024-09-19 00:00- Ethiopia signed a maritime agreement with Somaliland on January 1, 2024, granting it access to the Red Sea.
- The treaty has escalated tensions with Somalia, which views it as a violation of its sovereignty.
- The situation has led to increased military cooperation among regional neighbors and foreign intervention.
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Insights
Ethiopia's quest for access to the Red Sea has led to significant regional instability, particularly following a maritime agreement with Somaliland on January 1, 2024. This treaty grants Ethiopia a 20-kilometer strip of land for a commercial port and naval base, which Somalia views as a violation of its sovereignty. The agreement has intensified tensions in the Horn of Africa, prompting military escalations and a realignment of regional alliances, as foreign powers become increasingly involved in the conflict. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed the maritime issue as an existential matter for Ethiopia, claiming a historical right to access the sea after losing its ports to Eritrea in 1993. His rhetoric has included calls for nationalist patriotism and resistance against perceived foreign destabilization efforts. This has contributed to a militarized atmosphere in the region, with neighbors engaging in hostile exchanges and forming military cooperation agreements. The situation has drawn the attention of international actors, including the United States, which has expressed concern over the potential for conflict. The U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa recently completed a trip to the region, highlighting the urgency of addressing the escalating tensions. The ongoing conflict raises questions about the viability of the maritime agreement and its implications for regional stability. As Ethiopia pursues its maritime ambitions, the potential for a cold war in the Horn of Africa looms large, with the risk of further destabilization affecting not only Ethiopia and Somalia but also the broader region. The future of the agreement remains uncertain as diplomatic efforts are needed to mitigate the rising tensions.
Contexts
Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has been facing significant challenges in its quest to regain access to the sea. The ongoing tensions with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have escalated, as Egypt fears that the dam will threaten its water supply from the Nile. This dispute has led to failed diplomatic efforts and increased regional tensions, particularly with Egypt's military ties to Somalia. The security situation in Ethiopia has deteriorated following the Tigray conflict, resulting in a rise in abductions and a general sense of insecurity among the population. The government has been struggling to maintain order, which has further complicated its efforts to address humanitarian crises, including food shortages affecting millions of citizens. In January 2024, Ethiopia's government took a bold step by banning gasoline and diesel vehicles to promote electric cars, aiming to reduce fuel import costs amid a foreign currency shortage. However, the lack of infrastructure for electric vehicles poses a significant challenge to this transition. As Ethiopia navigates these complex issues, the Prime Minister has issued warnings against potential invasions, highlighting the need for a strong defense amid rising regional tensions. The situation remains precarious as Ethiopia seeks to stabilize its internal affairs while addressing external threats.
