
Pay growth hits lowest level in over five years
Pay growth hits lowest level in over five years
- Annual earnings growth in the UK for November to January was just 3.8%, down from 4.1%.
- Despite a stable unemployment rate at 5.2%, the number of payroll employees increased slightly.
- Experts predict a continued weakening in the labor market due to rising inflation and energy costs.
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In the UK, the latest statistics released by the Office for National Statistics reveal that pay growth has reached its slowest rate in more than five years. Specifically, between November and January, annual earnings increased at a rate of 3.8%, a decrease from the previous 4.1%. Despite this decline in pay growth, earnings were still growing at a pace that outstripped the rate of inflation, which was recorded at 3% in January. The unemployment rate remains stable at 5.2%, a figure consistent with a near five-year high, but there was a slight uptick in the number of workers on payrolls. In the past month alone, about 20,000 more individuals found employment, bringing the total number of payrolled employees to approximately 30.3 million. Observers note that this trend in employment numbers suggests a potential recovery in the labour market, although challenges persist, especially with increasing inflationary pressures linked to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Experts predict that while there could be some stability in payroll figures, demand for labour may remain weak, which could limit workers' bargaining power and restrict any significant increases in wages. Consequently, many analysts believe that the recent turmoil might lead the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to maintain interest rates rather than cut them, especially given the rising costs of fuel and energy. KPMG's chief economist Yael Selfin emphasized that current priorities are shifting, and inflation uncertainties could lead to interest rates being held at their current levels for an extended period.